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Is Gold Having a Minor Pullback or a Major Correction?

By Donald W. Pendergast Jr. – Market Analyst – www.ETFTradingPartner.com

Wow – what a week it was in the world of Gold! After charging above $1,200 on the front-month futures contract earlier in the week, Gold finally finished the week on a very weak note, closing below $1,150, which was right above the low established a week earlier in the wake of the Dubai debt debacle. Clearly, Gold is beginning a trend reversal on a daily-based time frame, but the technical picture is less clear  over the long-term.  Let’s examine a weekly chart for GLD (one of the financial instruments that holds actual Gold) to get a better fix on what might be expected in this volatile market over the next month or so.

 
 Graphic credit: Metastock v.11

Before going any further, I must admit to being a Gold Bug, having been afflicted with this wonderful malady for many years – including the time period prior to the recent bull run in Gold from 2001-present.  Long-term, and given the abysmal long-term outlook for the US Dollar (and all fiat currencies for that matter), declining mine production (most of the high-quality, easier to mine deposits are used up already) and greater awareness among investors regarding the inclusion of Gold in their portfolios, I believe that Gold will easily make it to $2,500 to $3,000 at some point in the next five years, despite several massive sell-offs along the way to the eventual summit. However,  in the here and now, we need to also rely on our charts, technical indicators and COT futures market data (Commitment of Traders report, published weekly by the CFTC) in order to minimize losses and maximize gains by waiting for more opportune times to add to long-term holdings of Gold and/or to capitalize on high probability, short-term moves (up and down) that will likely commence from solid support/resistance (S/R) levels in the weeks ahead.

OK, now on to what the weekly chart of GLD is telegraphing to astute traders and investors here:

1.    $1,200 was a key Fibonacci extension/Keltner Band resistance area on both a weekly and monthly time frame; major turbulence was expected well in advance – thus the recent tumble came as no surprise to experienced technical traders.

2.    Note this week’s  wide-range weekly reversal candle, one that printed on extremely heavy volume (see circle at bottom of chart); this is a major reversal signal, especially for daily-based traders, coming in the wake of such a high profile resistance barrier($1,200).

3.    Look now at the short-term and long-term money flows (lower portion of the chart); both of  the Chaikin money flow indicators (CMF)(34) and (CMF)(144) are revealing pronounced negative divergences with the actual price trends of GLD, which means that the raw fuel  (money flowing into GLD and Gold) needed to drive Gold higher is beginning to dry up - for the time being.

OK, so what? What’s a trader and/or investor to do now, given this information? Well, if you’re a long-term Gold Bug, simply hold your core investment positions for the long-haul; that $100+ trillion US national debt/unfunded liability problem  ain’t paid off just yet (and likely will never be), so the future for Gold has never looked better, especially for those wishing to diversify out of the Greenback. Let this corrective move play out and trhen consider adding more at lower price levels - $1,050 might be one such a price zone, which happens to be the current 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) price for cash Gold. For those investing via shares in GLD, the area near $104 also coincides with its own 21-week EMA. More cautious investors might wait for a move lower toward the 50-week EMA, which comes in at about $96 for GLD and $975 for cash Gold. The 21- and 50-week EMA’s acts as strong S/R barriers in nearly every kind of market, and Gold is no exception, so you may wish to do further analysis to see if adding on at those particular price areas makes sense for your financial situation.

Traders can be a bit more aggressive; expect to see some sort of a reaction move higher once GLD/Gold hit their 21-week EMA  (green box on the chart shows the likely time/price zone in which to anticipate a reversal higher)– this will most likely be a high-probability swing trade play, one that also needs to have a logical stop loss and profit target as well. Daily-based traders can do the same thing – plan on on the 21-day EMA offering some sort of a floor from which a short-term tradable bounce will commence. But be very nimble, with firm stop-loss and profit targets in place before you enter the trade.

Yes, this is a real correction in Gold, but no one really knows how far the price might fall. Even the strongest bull markets need to pause and correct before moving higher, and perhaps this is the case with the Gold market right now.  We should know more as the weeks ahead play out; as always, use common sense, be patient and learn to focus on what the charts and long-term fundamental factors are saying, rather than giving in to fear, doubt or the opinions of those who may not have your best interests in mind.

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By Donald W. Pendergast Jr.
Market Analyst
www.ETFTradingPartner.com

Are Canadian Gold Juniors a Buy?

Canadian Gold Juniors Soar – Should You Buy Now?

By Jeff Clark, Editor for Casey Research

 

For years, gold bugs like Doug Casey and his team have been saying that once gold takes off to stratospheric heights, it will take the gold mining stocks with it. It’s called the “Mania phase” of the commodity bull market.

 

Has this time arrived now?

 

If it hasn’t, it sure does a good look-a-like job. In the last weeks, the gold price has reached new records almost daily – the latest intraday high being $1,226.50/oz. The Chinese government has been urging its 1.3 billion citizens to buy physical gold and silver. And serially successful fund managers are beginning to load up on gold and gold shares.

BlackRock is a global commodities investment fund with a total of $1.4 trillion under management and serves as manager and adviser to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Not only did BlackRock state last month that “Central banks will be net buyers of gold this year as they diversify away from the U.S. dollar, marking a reversal of a decades-old trend” – the fund itself has a total of $4.655 billion invested in gold shares. Comparing the size of the gold stock market to the size of their portfolio, the 0.3% of their assets said to be invested in gold shares comes to something like 1 to 2% of the gold share market.

Financial website Minyanville agrees that “The smart money is already piled into gold,” listing high net worth investors like George Soros and Jim Rogers, and well-known fund managers like Bill Gross and Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital, Donald Coxe of Coxe Advisors, and David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund.

The proof is in the pudding: On December 1, the Canadian TSX stock exchange posted its highest close in 14 months, and since the end of September, the S&P/TSX gold index was up 13%.

"There are really only four sectors in Canada — mining, energy, financials and everything else," Colin Cieszynski, market analyst, CMC Markets Canada, told the Vancouver Sun.

"For the most part, the seniors in the energy group have been flat for awhile and the banks have been flat for three months. One of the only areas that has been moving with a sizable weight on the index has been the mining sector. Since (gold) is one of the only areas moving, it's being noticed."

So, should you jump into gold stocks with both feet?

Louis James, senior editor of Casey’s International Speculator, one of the world’s most respected gold mining stock advisories, warns of throwing caution to the wind. In a recent interview with The Gold Report, James stated, “Gold stocks are . . . highly, highly speculative. Most gold companies don't have any gold; they are exploring for gold or developing projects that they hope will be economic. Only a few actually produce gold, and even the biggest producers are highly volatile, because the price of their product fluctuates constantly and strongly.”

“If [the juniors] do make a discovery, they go from having literally nothing but a geologist's dream to having something of measurable value. The difference in valuation can be huge; this is how it's possible to get 10-baggers or even 50 times your money on one of these stocks.”

Discerning the potential multi-baggers from the barren holes in the ground, though, is not an easy feat – but the market, says James, has done part of the work for investors.

”In 2007 and 2008, before the jitters, the market was overvaluing a lot of companies, practically anything with ‘gold’ in its name. Some of these companies didn't even have any assay holes drilled into their prospects; all they had were theories and hopes, and they were trading for tens of millions of dollars. Since last fall's crash, there's been quite a separation of wheat from chaff, and many of the companies that had nothing but theories or hopes have not recovered significantly.”

Still, James and his colleagues at Casey Research are expecting another market correction before gold – and by extension, gold shares – begin their trip to the moon: “If you're psychologically predisposed to being nervous about your investment, and you know you'd have a hard time dealing with a drop of 30%, 40% in a month or two, maybe this is not a good time to be buying speculative gold stocks.

“That having been said, if you stick to quality companies, buy an initial slice of your ideal position now, and fill out the rest of your position at a lower average price if it fluctuates downward, you preclude the possibility of missing out on a stock that takes off. But you have to believe in your picks strongly enough to see a sell-off as a buying opportunity.

“Our general recommendation right now is to focus on the best of the best. Everything in the International Speculator portfolio has resources drilled off that can be defined by one of the regulation-complaint categories or another. And it's all gold and silver right now.”

Finding the best of the best is, you could say, a house specialty of Casey’s International Speculator, with a nearly 30-year history one of the most reputable advisories of its kind. And for a very limited time, you can get it for a fraction of the normal retail price.

Until December 18, we offer a 40% discount on a one-year subscription. Try International Speculator risk-free for 3 months – with full money-back guarantee. Plus, receive a free holiday gift if you sign up today. Click here to learn more.