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Are Canadian Gold Juniors a Buy?

Canadian Gold Juniors Soar – Should You Buy Now?

By Jeff Clark, Editor for Casey Research

 

For years, gold bugs like Doug Casey and his team have been saying that once gold takes off to stratospheric heights, it will take the gold mining stocks with it. It’s called the “Mania phase” of the commodity bull market.

 

Has this time arrived now?

 

If it hasn’t, it sure does a good look-a-like job. In the last weeks, the gold price has reached new records almost daily – the latest intraday high being $1,226.50/oz. The Chinese government has been urging its 1.3 billion citizens to buy physical gold and silver. And serially successful fund managers are beginning to load up on gold and gold shares.

BlackRock is a global commodities investment fund with a total of $1.4 trillion under management and serves as manager and adviser to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Not only did BlackRock state last month that “Central banks will be net buyers of gold this year as they diversify away from the U.S. dollar, marking a reversal of a decades-old trend” – the fund itself has a total of $4.655 billion invested in gold shares. Comparing the size of the gold stock market to the size of their portfolio, the 0.3% of their assets said to be invested in gold shares comes to something like 1 to 2% of the gold share market.

Financial website Minyanville agrees that “The smart money is already piled into gold,” listing high net worth investors like George Soros and Jim Rogers, and well-known fund managers like Bill Gross and Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital, Donald Coxe of Coxe Advisors, and David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund.

The proof is in the pudding: On December 1, the Canadian TSX stock exchange posted its highest close in 14 months, and since the end of September, the S&P/TSX gold index was up 13%.

"There are really only four sectors in Canada — mining, energy, financials and everything else," Colin Cieszynski, market analyst, CMC Markets Canada, told the Vancouver Sun.

"For the most part, the seniors in the energy group have been flat for awhile and the banks have been flat for three months. One of the only areas that has been moving with a sizable weight on the index has been the mining sector. Since (gold) is one of the only areas moving, it's being noticed."

So, should you jump into gold stocks with both feet?

Louis James, senior editor of Casey’s International Speculator, one of the world’s most respected gold mining stock advisories, warns of throwing caution to the wind. In a recent interview with The Gold Report, James stated, “Gold stocks are . . . highly, highly speculative. Most gold companies don't have any gold; they are exploring for gold or developing projects that they hope will be economic. Only a few actually produce gold, and even the biggest producers are highly volatile, because the price of their product fluctuates constantly and strongly.”

“If [the juniors] do make a discovery, they go from having literally nothing but a geologist's dream to having something of measurable value. The difference in valuation can be huge; this is how it's possible to get 10-baggers or even 50 times your money on one of these stocks.”

Discerning the potential multi-baggers from the barren holes in the ground, though, is not an easy feat – but the market, says James, has done part of the work for investors.

”In 2007 and 2008, before the jitters, the market was overvaluing a lot of companies, practically anything with ‘gold’ in its name. Some of these companies didn't even have any assay holes drilled into their prospects; all they had were theories and hopes, and they were trading for tens of millions of dollars. Since last fall's crash, there's been quite a separation of wheat from chaff, and many of the companies that had nothing but theories or hopes have not recovered significantly.”

Still, James and his colleagues at Casey Research are expecting another market correction before gold – and by extension, gold shares – begin their trip to the moon: “If you're psychologically predisposed to being nervous about your investment, and you know you'd have a hard time dealing with a drop of 30%, 40% in a month or two, maybe this is not a good time to be buying speculative gold stocks.

“That having been said, if you stick to quality companies, buy an initial slice of your ideal position now, and fill out the rest of your position at a lower average price if it fluctuates downward, you preclude the possibility of missing out on a stock that takes off. But you have to believe in your picks strongly enough to see a sell-off as a buying opportunity.

“Our general recommendation right now is to focus on the best of the best. Everything in the International Speculator portfolio has resources drilled off that can be defined by one of the regulation-complaint categories or another. And it's all gold and silver right now.”

Finding the best of the best is, you could say, a house specialty of Casey’s International Speculator, with a nearly 30-year history one of the most reputable advisories of its kind. And for a very limited time, you can get it for a fraction of the normal retail price.

Until December 18, we offer a 40% discount on a one-year subscription. Try International Speculator risk-free for 3 months – with full money-back guarantee. Plus, receive a free holiday gift if you sign up today. Click here to learn more.

Going long on gold bullion

Finding Elusive Gold in This Market

by the editors of BIG GOLD, Casey Research

At this writing, gold is still 15% off its peak, at least in U.S. dollars. Yet at the same time, the metal is cruising at or near all-time highs against a host of other currencies, including the Swiss franc, British pound, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Indian rupee.

That currency disparity means buyers around the world are prepared to pay much more for gold, relative to their own currencies, than is reflected in the New York spot market, which prices gold in dollars.

Demand for gold coins in particular is running so high that there were severe shortages in 2008. Dealers’ shelves emptied, mints either rationed their output or stopped producing entirely, and premiums over the spot price rose dramatically. All of which implies that the metal’s bull market is far from over. Yet taking advantage of the trend becomes problematic if you can’t get what you want.

Sure, you can buy as much paper gold as you like, through the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE.GLD), which is bullion-backed and will be sensitive to an advancing price. But what if you simply want physical metal and want it in quantity – say, a hundred ounces?

Well, you could buy 100 coins. If you could find them. Or you could buy a single 100-ounce bar.

Take heed: if you are buying in 100-ounce, 400-ounce or 1-kilo sizes, you want a good delivery bar, one that carries a hallmark from a recognized refiner. And buy only from a source you have a good reason to trust. The gold trade has been replete with con artists since ancient metalworkers began hammering on the shiny stuff and found they could increase their profit margins by adding in a little silver, copper, or even lead. With 100 ounces going for upwards of US$85,000, caution is in order.

Once you’re ready to commit to a 100-ounce buy, the next logical question is: Is there any way to avoid the big premiums and acquire what you want at spot? The answer, fortunately, is yes. You can elect to play with the big boys and get your 100-ounce bar on the COMEX, where the bullion banks and giant funds do their trading.

Playin’ the COMEX

The COMEX is primarily a paper market, with speculators going long or short on contracts for future delivery. 99.9% of those contracts get settled in cash and are closed out before the delivery date arrives, with participants pocketing profits or taking their lumps. Very little physical gold changes hands through COMEX trading.

But some does, because every participant who goes long has the right to pay in full and insist on actual delivery. And every participant who goes short has the right to deliver the goods and get paid. Those trades represent the other 0.1% of the contracts.

The Casey COMEX User's Manual

First, get a little more acquainted with the topic. Log on to the COMEX gold section at (http://www.nymex.com/gol_pre_agree.aspx) and have a look around.

Pay close attention to the Current Session Overview. It gives you a real-time picture of trading, with the various delivery months displayed, along with the price per ounce being bid. (With gold, the months further out nearly always have higher prices, a situation known in the commodities trade as contango. The opposite, when near-term prices exceed those down the road, is called backwardation, and for gold it’s extremely rare.)

If you decide to proceed with the idea of buying on the COMEX, you have to open an account with a futures broker. To do that, you’ll need to answer some questions about your financial status and then make a deposit. We spoke with an agent at Lind-Waldock in Chicago, one of the oldest and most active futures brokers, to learn about their requirements.

First, at Lind-Waldock, you must have a yearly income and net worth of at least $25,000 and $50,000, respectively; anyone who can afford a hundred ounces of gold will surely qualify. Then you must deposit a minimum of $5,000 with the broker. Finally, you choose from among several levels of service, which affects the amount of commission you’ll pay.

Once the futures account is in place, you’re set to go.

Let’s say the bid price three months out is $850/oz., and you like gold at that price. You call your broker and place an order at $850, for one gold contract (which represents a single 100-oz. bar of good delivery metal). As with bidding on a stock, you may not get what you want if the market is heading up and runs away from your price. The alternative is to place a market order, trusting that it gets filled at close to your target price, but that can be risky in a fast-moving market.

Let's assume you get your contract and lock up what you’ll pay for the gold, most of which will be due at expiration. What next? There are two possibilities. You can just deposit the full cost of the gold, sit back, and enjoy the wait for your prize. Or you can deposit the minimum amount required (the minimum “margin”), which varies and is set at the exchange’s discretion. For a single gold contract at the moment, it’s $5,800, or about 7% of the contract’s value.

That’s how the speculators play the market, putting up as little front money as possible. For you, that won’t be a problem if the price of gold rises, since the broker will be crediting a matching amount of cash to your account on a daily basis. But you have to be careful if the price of gold falls, because the broker will then charge your account for a matching amount of money day by day – and to keep the balance from going below the minimum margin requirement, he’ll send you a margin call, insisting that you deposit more cash. If you fail to do so, the broker will enter a sale order for you, and you’ll be out of the market.

Changes in the value of a futures contract, with their attendant shifting cash requirements, are of critical importance to traders who are simply playing with paper. Since you’re only interested in acquiring a physical gold bar, the fluctuations shouldn’t affect you. Just make sure you have enough money in your account that you’re not inadvertently sold out.

Then, on the settlement date, your account will be charged for an amount equal to the settlement price multiplied by the exact weight of the particular bar that’s been assigned to you (a “100-oz.” COMEX good delivery bar can actually vary in weight between 95 and 105 ounces). This is when everything gets squared up.

Taking Delivery

If you keep your position open until delivery, the COMEX will hand your broker a warehouse receipt with the details of your specific bar (hallmark, serial number, and weight to one-thousandth of an ounce). The broker can either hold the receipt in your account or mail it to you. (If you take possession of a warehouse receipt, be aware that it’s an irreplaceable bearer instrument. Don’t lose it!)

Your bar will be sitting in the vault of one of the four designated COMEX depositories, all of which are in or near New York City. If you want to bring the bar home, you’ll have to pick it up at the depository or arrange for third-party delivery. If you intend to hold it until gold reaches a certain price and then sell, your best bet is probably to leave the bar in the COMEX depository and leave the receipt with your broker.

We called Scotia Mocatta, which operates one of the COMEX-designated vaults, and were quoted a storage fee of $15/month per bar. If, however, you want the bar in your hands, you’ll have to pay a $150 delivery fee to get the bar released by the depository. Then you’re responsible for retrieving it, which could be a problem.

Unless you want to put the bar in your suitcase and fly home with it, you’ll have to have it delivered. You can’t ship a gold bar via the U.S. mail, FedEx or UPS; you have to hire an armored car service, such as Brinks.

Shipping costs depend, of course, on how far your gold will travel from the City. VIA MAT International (USA) gave us a ballpark figure of $150 to transport one gold bar from New York to California – a heckuva lot cheaper than airfare, and you get to keep your shoes on.

One final note: armored carriers won’t deliver to a house address. You would have to arrange to receive the shipment at a business, which could be an additional worry if neither you nor a trusted friend owns one. Or you could have it delivered to your bank and slide it into a safe deposit box, provided you don’t mind the bank’s employees knowing what you’re doing.

Will You Need an Assay?

If you leave your gold bar in the COMEX depository, it will be easier to sell. You just go through the above procedure in reverse, going short a contract instead of buying one.

However, if you take physical delivery and later wish to sell through the COMEX (or through a private dealer), you will need to have the bar reassayed. A prospective buyer of such a costly item must be certain that it was genuine to begin with and hasn’t been tampered with while in your possession.

The COMEX provides a list of approved assayers on its website. The one we contacted, Ledoux and Co., quoted us $300 per bar for the service.

And that’s all you need to know to get gold wholesale.

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